Please go away

This is my reaction to yet another series of articles in today’s The Age that almost celebrate Melbourne’s extensive and excessive population growth.

“It’s my kind of town, say 666,000 new Melburnians”. That’s how many people have been added in the last decade. No wonder transport and infrastructure are near collapse. This growth has been deliberately encouraged by politicians and businessmen in the name of profit. Melbourne used to be a fairly pleasant place to live – at least, in comparison to many other cities – but this livability is being increasingly eroded. I am angry and fed up with the situation, but I am not in a position to move, and there is nowhere else to go in any case.

“Melbourne struggling as population booms to more than five million by 2025 and 6.5 million by 2050”, H-S, 25/3. A similar article from last week (the Google search page links get around the annoying recently-introduced paywall for now). Here are the alarming statistics:

MELBOURNE’S booming population is generating a huge infrastructure to-do list with new analysis showing the city will need close to 10,000 new childcare spots, 5700 classrooms and about 3350 hospital beds by 2025.

About 1200 new residents are expected to move to Melbourne every week for the next 40 years as the city’s population swells to more than five million in 2025 and 6.5 million in 2050.

Just under 60 per cent of new arrivals will settle in one of seven growth areas: Casey, Cardinia, Hume, Melton, Mitchell, Whittlesea and Wyndham.

A detailed analysis of Melbourne’s growth by the Property Council of Australia paints a daunting task in term of future transport, health, education and housing needs.

Those include an extra 10,000 childcare spots by 2025 and 29,000 by 2050, about 3350 new hospital beds by 2025 and 8600 by 2050 and 5700 new classrooms by 2025 and 10,000 by 2050.

The big squeeze will also test Melbourne’s retirement and aged-care facilities as the city’s median age rises to 38 in 2025 and 41 in 2050.

An extra 13,600 aged-care places will be needed by 2025 - a figure which will rise to more than 60,000 by 2050.

The council also estimates the city will need to build an extra 380,000 houses and apartments over the next 12 years and close to a million by 2050.

Melbourne drivers will also be clocking up an extra 10 million kilometres by 2025 and 24 million by 2050.

Demand for energy will rise from 81,905 terajoules to 100,483 TJ in 2025 and 120,324 TJ in 2050 while water use will increase from 260 gigalitres to 318 GL and 412 GL over the same period.

Urban planners, local councils and key business figures are increasingly voicing concerns that little progress is being made on rolling out major infrastructure items needed to maintain the city’s quality of life.

TOWARDS 2050: BY THE NUMBERS

POPULATION

• 2011: 4.12 million
• 2025: 5.05 million
• 2050: 6.53 million

MEDIAN AGE

• 2011: 36
• 2025: 38
• 2050: 41

HOUSEHOLDS

• 2011: 1.76 million
• 2025:2.16 million
• 2050: 2.79 million

HOME SHORTFALL

• 2011: 27,622
• 2025: 381,573
• 2050: 1 million

CHILDREN (0-5) IN CHILDCARE

• 2011: 95,604
• 2025: 105,225
• 2050: 124,435

CLASSROOMS

• 2011: 25,134
• 2025: 30,809
• 2050: 35,204

HOSPITAL BEDS

• 2011: 14,743
• 2025: 18,084
• 2050: 23,381

POLICE OFFICERS

• 2011: 12,100
• 2025: 14,897
• 2050: 19,262

PEOPLE IN RETIREMENT VILLAGES

• 2011: 15,967
• 2025: 23,206
• 2050: 37,779

PEOPLE IN AGED CARE

• 2011: 30,231
• 2025: 43,813
• 2050: 90,777

TOTAL KMS TRAVELLED

• 2011: 36.15m km
• 2025: 46.1m km
• 2050: 59.88m km

ENERGY USE

• 2011: 81,905 TJ
• 2025: 100,483 TJ
• 2050: 120,324 TJ

WATER USE

• 2011: 259.44 GL
• 2025: 318.24 GL
• 2050: 411.45 GL

How about containing growth rather than continually struggle to accommodate more?

What I would like to see is the introduction of a residency permit – with priority given to Australian citizens and above them Victorian residents – and population caps for suburbs and the city as a whole. Let’s say 4 million (it is currently more than this). Housing would be provided for this number and no more. Unfortunately this idea is likely to remain a dream as people would protest about their freedom of movement being curtailed, but the alternative is having the city keep growing uncontrollably with governments forever trying to catch up with infrastructure, and never managing to. Ultimately the city will be surrounded by slums like most megacities of the world.