29 June 2009

Mad at Madden

The Age readers were quick in responding to Planning Minister Justin Madden’s article (I sent in a letter but it was not published):

26/6:

Low density, high amenity can’t coexist

Justin Madden’s defence of his Government’s decision to abandon Melbourne’s green wedges and release huge tracts of land for development demands a response. Attacking critics as elitist is unworthy of a minister.

The proposed low-density developments will lock Melbourne into further unsustainability, with the car the overwhelmingly dominant mode of transport. With global warming and peak oil, this is locking in serious problems for the future. While I hope the new railway projects Madden talks about eventuate, his Government has been in power 10 years without any substantial extension of the rail or tram network.

With current rates of growth we will hit the 5 million population target within 10 years. Unless growth is substantially reduced – and that is not on the agenda – we will then see Melbourne at 6 million, 8 million, 10 million. The 10 people per hectare proposal for the new outer suburbs simply will not be able to cope and Melbourne will continue to devour prime farmland. There are few cities anywhere of the size of 5 to 10 million at the low densities being proposed for Melbourne.

The Government has been reacting to change after it has occurred rather than having a clear vision it is able to implement, while the Opposition remains silent. We cannot simultaneously have high population growth, low taxes, low urban densities, high amenity and a sustainable city. Something has to give. The question is what? Let’s have that debate.

– Peter Hogg, North Melbourne

27/6:

Far cry from suburbia of today

Justin Madden (Comment, 25/6) declares that he grew up in Airport West and therefore understands suburbia. Airport West is a far cry from the suburbs of today. It has a train, a tram, a vibrant shopping strip with lots of locally owned shops and employment opportunities. Few of the suburbs being built today have these things. Because public transport hasn’t kept up with growth, many households in outer suburbia have higher costs associated with having to run more cars.

This is an added burden on households on the fringe who can least afford it, causing increasing social disadvantage and household stress. It isn’t about snobbery, Minister Madden – quite the opposite. It’s about providing people with appropriate opportunities through better planning.

– Alison Lee, urban and transport planner, Collingwood

Migration patterns

Justin Madden’s statement that Melbourne’s growth “is lopsided and needs to change” displays a shocking ignorance of the factors driving sectoral growth, which were well documented in Suburbs in Time, a 2000 report by the Department of Infrastructure. It showed that despite lopsided growth, no major net migration moves to the north and west were occurring. The report concluded that migration patterns showed local, generally outward moves, mainly because of the desire to remain in familiar areas and close to family, friends and work.

The notion that limiting outward growth to the east or south will result in a redirection to the west or north is not supported by research carried out by the Government in 2000.

If constraints to the east are implemented, then land prices will inevitably rise and low-income groups will be greatly disadvantaged.

Increasing divergences between urban research and government policy and actions are deplorable and must be redressed urgently. There is a pressing need to re-establish a multifunction planning and development authority for a Melbourne-based region, staffed by experts, with security of tenure, modelled on the former Melbourne Metropolitan Board of Works.

– Geoff Harris, former acting director of planning, MMBW, Bentleigh

The real “elitism”

Justin Madden may not have realised, but the use of the word “elitist” to denigrate those arguing against your point of view went out with the Howard government. To argue against urban sprawl, against 1960s-style planning, against energy-hungry suburbs, is not elitist and to suggest so is insulting to the wide range of people who want to achieve a sustainable built environment.

The real elitism in Madden’s argument lies in the suggestion that Melbourne can continue to spread across vast areas, up to 44 kilometres from the CBD, consuming vast quantities of resources and natural heritage in the process, while in other countries people live happily – and consume fewer resources – in densities far higher than the 10 people per hectare that Madden advocates. As for the suggestion that the city is lopsided; just because the sprawl spreads beyond Cranbourne, does that mean it has to go to the You Yangs in the other direction?

– John Ford, West Melbourne

Stop mad growth

Justin Madden, you have missed the point. “Cultural snobbery” and “NIMBY-ism” are not my reasons for being against urban growth and I strongly doubt they are the reasons held by other Melburnians. We are against the destruction of green wedges and native fauna habitat that results from urban growth. A better answer for Melbourne lies upwards, but a perfect answer would involve an effort to stop this mad population growth.

– Lola Jones, Malvern East

This comment from the article “Property owners slugged an average $64 more”, Herald-Sun, 27/6, infuriated me (aside from the main subject of greedy and wasteful councils):

Wyndham City Council Mayor Shane Bourke said it was not an ideal situation for his residents and businesses to have the highest increase, but said he would listen to residents before anything was set in stone. “It’s one of these things which we’d prefer not to happen,” he said. “But we’ve just had 9000 people move in during the last 12 months and we know we’re going to average about 10,000 people a year over the next 30 years. It’s booming and there are challenges with it, but you’ve got to maintain infrastructure and it’s exciting to have so many people coming to our area.”

“Exciting”? WTF?? More like stressful and unsustainable. Growth should be made a dirty word; it is never good.

World’s megacities ripe for ‘megadisaster’ ”, SMH, 17/6. A not-very-surprising article saying that cities with high populations are vulnerable to natural disasters (i.e. lots of people killed).

25 June 2009

Planning outrage

Below is a collection of published letters from The Age over the last week, most opposed to the Victorian Government’s undemocratic takeover of planning issues.

15/6:

Population fallacy

It is a fallacy that we need high population growth to sustain our economy. Denmark has a stable population of 5 million, with a low birth rate and immigration rate. Its unemployment rate is the lowest in the European Union and is lower than Australia’s. The country exports more then it imports, its GDP per capita is similar to ours, and it provides a high level of foreign aid. In Australia we use population growth as an excuse to destroy our environment, our amenity and our democratic processes.

– Jennie Epstein, Little River

Sustainability=density

It’s not surprising that Justin Madden is under siege. A minority of wealthy people don’t want their suburbs disturbed. They speak in terms of “lifestyle”, “heritage” or “ambience”. But let’s get to the heart of it. They don’t want more people in their area. They especially don’t want more poor people. But they won’t express it in those terms.

If you look at the sustainability of cities, one factor stands out. Density of population. This is why Singapore is much more sustainable than Melbourne. A small minority is putting their own narrow interests ahead of the future. Go in hard Justin, and keep your eye on the scoreboard.

– Andrew Jennings, Frankston

[No, people simply don’t want to be crowded together like caged battery hens!]

18/6:

Cheers and jeers

Goodness me. All those building lobby groups so upset at the blocking of development assessment committees (“Building groups slam Opposition”, The Age, 17/6).

As a resident living in one of the “designated” (for maximum development) areas, I say thank you – many times over – to the State Opposition, the Greens and others who blocked the legislation in the upper house.

Please hang in there. We locals have been excluded from this so-called planning process by the State Government. How obscene, to watch one’s suburb treated as a mere resource, to be exploited to the max by the circling vultures.

– Olga Kimpton, Coburg

19/6:

Business as usual as state gives up

Justin Madden has announced 41,000 hectares of land is to be released to house another 415,000 people. This equates to a density of just over 10 people per hectare. At such a low density, we must assume this will be a car-dominated expansion with McMansions with one or two people per house as the standard. What happened to Melbourne 2030? What happened to sustainable development? Where are the green wedges?

The Government has clearly given up on all these things. Once again it is business as usual, with windfall profits to the tract housing developers and another huge chunk of our ever expanding city locked into a totally unsustainable growth pattern. C’mon Justin, you can do better than that!

– Peter Hogg, North Melbourne

Levy development stage

When is Justin Madden going to realise that land owners in the expanded urban growth boundary are not as stupid as he thinks? The growth areas infrastructure contribution, in its proposed form, will be a disaster.

In Madden-world, the boundary is a millionaire’s playground, a place where no one gets sick or divorced, where everyone is content to sit on their properties for decades, happily paying exorbitant rates while enjoying the sub-standard infrastructure they have put up with for years. Then when urban sprawl reaches them and they can sell (or their land is compulsorily acquired), they will hand over vast percentages of the sale price in tax to pay for infrastructure they won’t use and thank the Government for the privilege of being rezoned.

The Labor Government needs a serious reality check. The majority of land owners in the growth boundary are ordinary working families, who often have to sell because of illness or divorce or because they want, or need, to live elsewhere. This proposal will take away this basic right. Because the infrastructure contribution is levied at the “first property transaction” rather than at development stage, land owners must wait until development of their land is imminent before they can recoup enough money to pay their liability of $95,000 per hectare.

Infrastructure is expensive and the money for it must come from somewhere. But this proposal is unworkable and unfair. The infrastructure contribution should be paid at development stage.

– Jeanette Laffan, secretary, TAXED OUT Northern Group, Beveridge

Gluttony of growth

The Government’s plans to acquire 15,000 hectares of native grasslands and establish new reserves to “offset” the loss of 6918 hectares of grasslands that will be given over to new developments is pure tokenism and green-washing. The cancer of suburban growth will continue at the same rate under our present population growth rate. How can native grasslands absorb the greenhouse gas emissions, compensate for heat emitted from the extra concrete and roadways, increase our water catchment areas or offset the amount of water used or the infrastructure costs that will be relayed on to the public purse?

Not one problem is solved by this continual growth! In fact, it will exacerbate existing ones and add new ones. The only groups to benefit from this gluttony of growth are land developers, the construction industry and the State Government as it ensures the votes of the pro-growth sector.

– Vivienne Ortega, Heidelberg Heights

22/6:

What to eat when the farms are gone?

When rows of lookalike houses are sprouting on rezoned rural land around Melbourne, I wonder where all the beautiful, productive vegetable farms will be located.

I can’t believe that our Melbourne-centred Government is so obsessed with develop-mania that it will not attempt to protect producing farms in proximity to the hungry city. Who on earth is going to provide the fruit and vegetables, dairy products, lamb, pork and beef that we all demand? Do we really want to import food from Asia or Europe that we can grow or breed so successfully here?

There should be a subsidy that not only protects food farmers from the outrageous taxing that is mooted for land sales, but actively supports them so they may continue to produce the fresh food that nutrition experts are so anxious for a new generation to consume.

Let us insist that the ruthless rezoning and chopping into the so-called green wedges is reconsidered, and the beautiful farms remain for future generations to benefit from. I can never vote for a government that is so arrogant and stupid about zoning precious farm lands.

– Virginia Linton-Smith, Paynesville

It’s time, Mr Baillieu

Like many Victorians who feel that Victoria is reaching the tipping point – the point of no return with its population growth – I believe it’s incumbent on the Liberal Party and leader Ted Baillieu to enunciate exactly what policy his party has on the destruction of green wedges, slowing urban sprawl, providing adequate water and getting population growth under control.

Premier John Brumby says 2000 people a week are coming into our state (The Age, 18/6). This is up from the 1200 of only a few months ago.

Surely this sort of population increase would tax any government’s capacity to provide infrastructure and services and to safely absorb. Given this present Government’s record, this does not inspire confidence.

Who is controlling this massive surge in population? Certainly not our citizenry, who indicate time and again that this is not what they want.

The Liberal Party has been quiet on this issue and it’s time for Mr Baillieu to get off the fence and come out with a detailed response and, hopefully, with an alternative to the Brumby Government’s arrogant overriding of public concerns. What about it, Mr Baillieu?

– Tony Davidson, Glen Waverley

23/6:

Change course or wave farewell to our liveable city

I am appalled by the Government’s proposal to extend the urban growth boundary (yet again), and to effectively abandon the principles established under Melbourne 2030. Three years ago I stood in a paddock marked for development in Melbourne’s outer reaches as the then premier and the planning minister, Rob Hulls, launched the Growth Areas Authority. I was optimistic that a more sensible, efficient and sustainable urban form would come forward and define Melbourne’s outer suburbs. How wrong I was. The Government’s revised approach to the city’s urban growth boundary will doom Melbourne to become an average city of lost opportunity.

The fundamental problem is that the people responsible for the management and growth of Melbourne and, more importantly, establishing a long-term vision and strategy, are unskilled at what they do. Justin Madden and John Brumby, are, instead, swayed by developers and skewed economics. Developers are a clever bunch. They can innovate if they are required to. It is not about starting from scratch, it is about building upon some of the good work already done and giving Melbourne the vision it deserves.

– Adam G. Williams, AECOM Design and Planning, London, Britain

It’s Maddening stupidity

Let me try to get this straight. Melbourne is sprawling out of control and that’s why they brought in the 2030 plan. In the areas that they service, the railways cannot cope with passenger traffic and trains are grossly overcrowded. The peak period on the roads now lasts for much of the morning. There is a water crisis, with Melbourne’s water supply being only a quarter of its capacity.

The solution seems to be to cancel the short-lived 2030 and extend the built-up area, build houses over green areas and valuable market gardens and extend Melbourne’s population to 5 million. It is a triumph of stupidity over common sense and could well be described as Maddening.

– John Ackerman, Keilor East

Redress the balance

On a recent trip to Brisbane, we were told that more than 1200 people a week are moving to Queensland. John Brumby says that 2000 people a week are relocating to Melbourne. People are also flocking to Darwin at an alarming rate.

Given this huge internal migration, one can’t help but wonder where these people are coming from and why? There must be a lot of vacant houses in empty towns somewhere, or are these new arrivals coming from overseas?

Anyone wanting affordable accommodation, and work, might be interested in occupying the places these new people leave behind. Can someone tell those wanting to exit the cities where to go … politely of course.

– Craig Cahill, Blessington, Tas

Dreams and darlings

If Rob McClellan, the previous Liberal government’s planning minister, was the darling of the developers, then the Labor Government’s Justin Madden must be their dream come true.

– Don Owen, Hawthorn

24/6:

Where do we draw this grey line?

Week after week, letter writers to The Age suggest that the solution to urban sprawl is to limit Melbourne’s population growth.

We are yet to be treated to suggestions about how this should be achieved. How do we decide who is privileged enough to live here? Those of us who were here first and don’t want to see unit developments from our big backyards? Perhaps you need a family connection? An employment sponsor? A minimum bank balance?

Those who wish to see population growth limited clearly see the advantages of living in Melbourne, or they wouldn’t be so desperate to preserve their personal living standards. I am interested to hear how they propose to deny these advantages to others.

– Abby McKee, Greensborough

[A limit has to be imposed at some point – just restrict further immigration! A hotel, for example, only has a certain number of rooms and thus has to limit guests.]

A populous plague

Articles in The Age regarding urban sprawl bring up the question of “why?”. One day some member of Parliament will let their gut hang out and make the point that is all too obvious – that there are just too many human beings on this planet, and something urgently needs to be done. I taught high school for 20 years, from 1970. Even back then the world was deemed to be overloaded. No one has taken much notice of the breeding rate of humans. We have become a plague species and unless we address growth of our population, will we not survive.

We have basically destroyed the ecosystem and the normal functioning of the entire biosphere. We think we are a clever species, but in reality we are quite the opposite.

If one wants to get out of a hole, the first thing one needs to do is stop shovelling. But we just shovel on at an increasing rate.

I have a feeling that we have left the matter too long and it is beyond rectification.

– Sumner Berg, Beechworth

More The Age articles:

  • Reserves to replace lost grasslands”, 17/6. Native grasslands will be lost with the urban boundary expansion, but the proposed reserves won’t compensate for this.
  • Go-ahead for urban expansion”, 18/6. Farewell to Melbourne’s open spaces and liveability.
  • Opposition to a bigger Melbourne smacks of cultural snobbery”, 25/6. A riposte from Madden himself, accusing those who oppose his planning takeover as “NIMBYs”. He is a former footballer – what qualifications (if any) does he have in planning? (The prospect of this buffoon becoming a policital leader, as he has stated he wants to do, is nightmarish.) The Victorian Government’s approach is one of trying to keep pace with out-of-control population growth by authorizing ill-considered developments.

16 June 2009

Repeating history

Our civilisation will be just as fragile as those before”, The Age, 16/6 (reproduced below). An excellent article pointing out that our modern civilization could go the same way as others before us in history (the ancient Romans, Mayans, those in India and so on) due to resource depletion, environmental damage, greed and hubris. The current situation is unique in that the Earth has never had to cope with the sheer mass of 7 billion people before, nor the immense amounts of waste produced in the form of plastics that will persist for millennia. Our methods of storing information on digital media are fragile and are unlikely to last as long as those of the ancients, who carved their writings and art on stone.

We think of ourselves as more enlightened and aware than previous civilizations, but humans seem to repeat the same mistakes over and over again in history without learning from the past, and we are still doing it. It is a frustrating and avoidable cycle, but one we as a species seem locked into, in our current stage of evolution. Perhaps this is because we do not live that long and so can’t plan for the long-term future centuries or millennia away.

Our civilization will be just as fragile as those before

Geoff Strong
June 16, 2009 – 12:00 a.m.

If it is true all good things must end, I wonder what will be our end. Having stood in the remains of Rome, ancient Greece and the ruined cities of Sri Lanka and India, I have reflected on the fantasy of their invincibility and the truth of their temporary might.

The artefacts of once wondrous civilizations draw me to the one thought: if there are archaeologists in the future, what conclusions will they draw about us? What will there be of value or magnificence in our lives to study?

Most believe this to be the most remarkable civilization ever – yet it could also be one of the most temporary. Technical prowess aside, it is the first with a truly global reach. Its common thread is the business activity that has spread tentacles to most parts of the planet.

But the past year has taught us the hubris of thinking this economic system will survive regardless. Is it unthinkable to wonder whether the whole of our global civilization can fall?

Many of us who grew up in the shadow of nuclear annihilation of the Cold War used to dwell on it all the time. Spike Milligan wrote a satirical play later made into a film entitled The Bed Sitting Room set in post-apocalyptic London nine months after World War Ⅲ. “World War Ⅲ, the Nuclear Misunderstanding, lasted for two minutes and 28 seconds – including the signing of the peace treaty.”

Even Britain has decayed before. As a Roman province its population was thought to be four million, yet after the Norman conquest, the Domesday book of 1086 records a population of less than two million.

Now that the main nuclear annihilation threat comes from the lunatic regime in North Korea, other horsemen have taken the lead in the apocalypse gallop: pandemic disease, economic famine and climate change pestilence.

We forget climate change is not just about a rise in temperature. Victoria’s trauma of Black Saturday in February was as much due to wind as to heat.

The increased power of moving air recently made an impact on one of our civilization’s most potent symbols. During one of the storms to hit south-east Queensland in recent months, a man was killed when a sheet of glass fell from a Gold Coast high-rise building, such was the force of the wind. If there was ever a symbol of the global business civilization, it is the high-rise. Like the pyramids of Egypt and the temples of Greece and Rome, the high-rise is the architectural representation of deepest beliefs – in our case money and the organisations needed to accumulate it.

Some may say they are our temples to greed. They were certainly the real and symbolic target chosen when jihadists attacked the West via the New York World Trade Centre in 2001.

Yet as the storms demonstrate, it takes less than attack by fuel-loaded aircraft to show their fragility. Just as tourists crawl over the skeletal remains of ruined temples and the unearthed pathways of old towns, will there one day be tours to the bony remains of our high-rise cities?

Most of us now feel global warming caused by our species is likely to change this planet into a place more hostile to humans.

Melbourne is growing rapidly and running short of water. We will have to rely on huge amounts of greenhouse-generating electricity for desalination and a similar amount to pump water through the north-south pipeline.

A testament to the importance of water is one of the most wonderful abandoned cities in India, Fatephur Sikri, near Agra. Its magnificent buildings were constructed by Mughal emperor Akbar and served as his empire’s capital from 1571 until 1585, when it was vacated due to an inadequate water supply.

Our civilization also seems to operate in ever-decreasing circles of endurance. Just as we seek to shorten the time it takes to do anything, we seem happy to accept decreasing lifespans of anything we create. At 70 years old, our timber house has lasted twice as long as a builder acquaintance told me is expected from a house built today. New raw-earth housing estates are smothered with brick-clad homes, many dressed up with mock columns and pediments.

But even more alarming is the fragility of the knowledge stored in the way we like to do it now – digitally. Fragments of stone writing from ancient Sumeria or Egypt still give us an understanding of their world. But try getting information from an ancient computer system, such as an early Apple – less than 20 years old but now useless.

What will an archaeologist, a thousand years from now, make of the millions of CDs, DVDs and computer discs unearthed as they sift through the remains of our rubbish tips? The mathematical and electronic wizardry that helped them make sense to us will be long gone.

Geoff Strong is a senior writer.

Population and Sustainability: Can We Avoid Limiting the Number of People?”, Scientific American, 10/6. Feature article in the June 2009 Special Edition. It concludes that empowering women with access to education and family planning will help slow population growth.

Collected letters:

Population fallacy

IT IS a fallacy that we need high population growth to sustain our economy. Denmark has a stable population of 5 million, with a low birth rate and immigration rate. Its unemployment rate is the lowest in the European Union and is lower than Australia’s. The country exports more then it imports, its GDP per capita is similar to ours, and it provides a high level of foreign aid. In Australia we use population growth as an excuse to destroy our environment, our amenity and our democratic processes.

– Jennie Epstein, Little River, 15/6

Dreams shattered, all for Mr. Nice Guy

Your article (Insight, 13/6) portrays Planning Minister Justin Madden as Mr. Nice Guy. Fair suck of the sauce bottle. “Harry” is responsible for the destruction of Marvellous Melbourne, given his fixation with fast-tracking high-rise, high-density developments to accommodate the huge influx of migrants and students, and to make jobs for the construction industry.

His supporters point to European cities as successful examples of high-density living but fail to mention that those city fathers have always provided public gardens for the wellbeing of their citizens.

While our parks, gardens and golf courses are progressively alienated for yet more sports stadiums and housing developments, we are brainwashed into believing that we can no longer dream of owning a house on a quarter-acre block with the Hills hoist and a vegie garden out the back. We have to be content with living in high-rise human warehouses or outer-suburban, featureless gulags. Why should we forgo our dreams just because Madden and his boss, Premier John Brumby, support unsustainable levels of migration to the state and adhere to the fallacious belief that all growth is good?

– Lewis Prichard, Hawthorn, 16/6

12yo pregnancy: ‘DoCS should have done more’ ”, ABC News, 16/6. In my view the girl should be forced to abort; she is far too young to undergo the stress of pregnancy. The affair is a ridiculous farce; children’s and teenagers’ “rights” are too lenient in Western society.

13 June 2009

Impeach Brumby!

That expresses the exasperation and frustration I feel with the current Victorian Government. Planning issues have been in the news again this week, and the Brumby Government (especially Planning Minister Justin Madden) continue to force their overcrowding and overdevelopment agenda, irrespective of how residents feel. Some articles from The Age:

  • Brumby tackled on urban sprawl”, 9/6. The “Green Wedge” zones supposed to retain open space are to be developed to accommodate a projected population of 5 million in Melbourne and surrounding suburbs. The Open Letter from councils is reproduced below.
  • Wedge politics”, 9/6. Some of the open areas are part of the diminishing Victorian Volcanic Plains Grasslands and include some of the last remnants of the plains grasslands, which are being smothered under housing estates.
  • Threat to grab power off councils”, 13/6. Justin Madden – whom I have come to despise (and the building industry as well), and who has been Planning Minister for far too long – is to override councils’ decisions on planning.

This Labor Government is just as bad as the previous Liberal Government under Jeff Kennett (who began the planning reforms that have led to this); I would not vote for either of them.

Dear Sirs,

Governments have to make difficult decisions. We understand that. However recent planning reforms have gone too far. In the past few months your Government has:

  1. Introduced legislation to deprive local communities of their normal rights to have their own elected Councillors make decisions on development applications in their larger shopping centers;
  2. Planned to appoint a government-dominated committee to
    1. make decisions,
    2. require local residents to write a blank cheque to pay for the committee, and
    3. demand Councils pay the cost of defending the committee’s decisions even where residents and Councillors may strongly oppose these decisions.
  3. Removed the rights of residents, Councils and VCAT to make decisions on development applications which are deemed important economy-boosting opportunities. The normal rights of residents have been taken away. Applications are now decided behind closed doors.
  4. Removed both the rights of residents to be advised of applications next door to them, and to express concern about applications involving social housing and private schools where government funding is involved.

These measures demolish the cornerstone of this state’s planning system – the rights of residents to have a say about their neighborhood. These rights are at the very heart of our democratic system of governance. The use of the economic downturn to justify the denial of these fundamental rights is short-term thinking with disasterous long-term consequences. How can communities have any confidence in a planning system where the ends justify the means?

It is time to reinstate residents’ rights. It is time to return democratic planning processes to the people who elected you to respect and protect those rights in our society.

All of this is attributable to a growing population. If the Federal and State Governments would have the foresight to restrict Australia’s population growth such pressures would be alleviated, but they are hopelessly addicted to growth.

Australia turns back the clock to baby boomer era”, The Age, 5/6. A dismaying report of the current high rate of Australia’s population growth, due to both immigration and birth rate increase.

The Top 10 Most Absurd Time Covers of The Past 40 Years”, Reason Online. This site has a byline of “free minds and free markets” which sounds suspiciously like it is a Libertarian site. №8 is “August 6, 1984: The Population Curse”, reproduced below:

Why So Worried? Using an upcoming U.N. conference in Mexico City as its hook, Time engages in some Paul Ehrlich-style doom-mongering about overpopulation.

Cue Ominous Music: “The consequences of a failure to bring the world’s population growth under control are frightening. They could include widespread hunger and joblessness, accompanied by environmental devastation and cancerous urban growth. Politically, the outcome could be heightened global instability, violence and authoritarianism.”

Oh, Just Settle Down: Since Time’s 1984 cover story, the world’s population has increased from 4.75 billion to 6.78 billion people. This year, the World Bank’s Poverty Analysis reported, “Living standards have risen dramatically over the last decades. The proportion of the developing world’s population living in extreme economic poverty…has fallen from 52 percent in 1981 to 26 percent in 2005… Infant mortality rates in low- and middle-income countries have fallen from 87 per 1,000 live births in 1980 to 54 in 2006. Life expectancy in [low and middle-income] countries has risen from 60 to 66 between 1980 and 2006.” According to the peace advocacy group Ploughshares, the number of armed conflicts across the globe has generally been in decline since the mid-1990s (PDF). As for “authoritarianism,” with the fall of the Soviet empire, a far greater percentage of the global population lived under such regimes in 1984 than do today. Even the massive population in China is freer (if not actually “free”) than it was in 1984.

Well, we are already seeing the consequences of overpopulation (hunger, joblessness, environmental devastation, etc.), so what reality are the article writers living in?

Pop the Pill and think of England”, New Statesman, 4/11/2002. An older article that explains why an aging and declining population is not something to be feared.

06 June 2009

Hidden resentment

In recent weeks there has been several attacks on international students from India. The letters below suggest additional reasons other than racism (which is undeniably a factor):

Hidden resentment

With regard to assaults on overseas students, dare one raise possible underlying reasons without being assailed with the usual ideology-based BRIX (bigot, racist, ignorant, xenophobe) discussion-stopper?

Is there a hidden concern that immigration is out of control? That, with an unknown population-carrying capacity, our nation is placing at risk its environmental capital, clearly limited by factors including fresh water availability, declining soil fertility and increasing salinisation?

Is there also a loss of social capital, with resentment at an influx of students seeking to use local qualifications to gain permanent residency for themselves and relatives, supporting with their fees a tertiary education system seemingly unwilling to accommodate all non-full-fee local applicants?

To what extent are such concerns, if widespread among their parents, being manifested among youth gangs by attacks on students from overseas? If so, remediation will require open discussion, not its suppression by hurling BRIX-type abuse at anyone concerned at current levels of immigration. In the longer term, debate can be less dangerous than its denial by ideology-based imputations of racism.

– John O’Connor, Cottles Bridge, 30/5

One agreed with him (below); two other letters didn’t:

Numbers just keep adding up and up

John O’Connor (Letters, 30/5) is to be congratulated for his prescience and willingness to look beyond the obvious racial bigotry and pinpoint the true causes of the assaults on overseas students and concomitant social problems. Tim Colebatch reported (The Age, 9/5) that immigration is soaring under the Rudd Government to record levels of about 300,000 a year. Perhaps 90 per cent of these new arrivals are moving into Sydney (no room) and Melbourne (no water).

Many people are concerned at these numbers and want, at least for a time, the system to slow down. Governments, state and federal, show no concern for community feeling and a pressure-cooker atmosphere now exists in the community, with racial attacks and rampant everyday violence.

This frustration will almost certainly reach its apogee here in Victoria next year when the Brumby Government seeks re-election. Should the rains fail this spring, then the high-population Brumby Government will face an electorate as mad as hell about why it has dried-out gardens and must wash in and drink muddy water.

– Tony Davidson, Glen Waverley, 1/6

And another in support:

Populate and perish – we must ask why

In response to the misrepresentations of Alex Njoo and William Maley (Letters, 1/6), two blindingly obvious points seem appropriate. Australia has been a nation of immigrants for some 60,000 years. Today, all Australian citizens must treat one another inclusively, and with due regard for our country’s sustainable future, while being wary of tendencies to divide into ethnic-based pseudo-tribes.

It emphatically does not follow that immigration at its present levels should be immune from questioning. We all need to know: what is Australia’s longer-term sustainable-population carrying capacity? What limiting factors may have already been exceeded? Should our tertiary education sector continue to act as a de facto immigration agency, additional to a large official intake?

We need a rational debate on this, the most important single issue facing us all. Refutation of population concerns is not even on Australia’s political radar. It should be.

– John O’Connor, Cottles Bridge, 2/6

International students (from India and elsewhere) are a lucrative income source for many universities, which have to substitute for decreased government funding. Personally I have little liking for universities and believe the IS program should be drastically curtailed; it is, as pointed out in the letters, another form of immigration. With resources such as water under strain (reservoirs are at their lowest-ever level and there is no prospect of good winter rains this year), why are we encouraging more and more visitors to come?

Babies we must afford”, Herald-Sun, 1/6. Dumb opinion piece saying IVF should be supported because it creates more future taxpayers. Considering the expenses and medical complications IVF-created children can incur, it is a poor bargain!